We Already Know In Advance Where Flood Waters Have the Bigges...

We Already Know In Advance Where Flood Waters Have the Biggest Chance

From: From Lance
Date: 15 Jul 2003
Time: 21:11:21
Remote Name: 66.82.48.1

Comments

We have come to a point in our technological age where we have data and conceptual information to predict just about everything. By finding patterns we can determine many things. For quick instance is Claudette the flooding storm which will cause some flash flooding and lower level flooding of many parts of South TX. By using data mapping and topography data such as http://www.mapsmith.com contact erik.skapple@mapsmith.com for more information on this. And of course there are many other things we study which predict to a pretty reliable degree where what wil occur when: http://gis.esri.com/library/userconf/proc96/TO50/PAP040/P40.HTM ------ There is lots of data available for us to make smarter decisions and prevent disasters in advance. We are quickly reaching the possibility of guesstimating Earthquakes as well, Arthur C Clark would be proud no doubt. As this data and information becomes common knowledge we know we will solve many of dilemas once percieved as insurmountable. We soon will be able to track genetic code and know who will have the skills necessary to propel the human race and best suited to lead and most likely to move the ball forward for the human race. We will also understand who are most likely to contract diseases and we can then head that off prior to it's negative aspects. This will solve so many things as we learn to use data better and software properly. Those who are on the leading edge of predicting algorythms are coming closer every day to get us what we need to make better decisions. Decisions that only the most brilliant minds could hope for in times past. Discoveries and theories can be verified within days instead of by committee politics and guessing. Soon we will have more truth as to our reality within this realm, however as we systematically deny these findings are we really simply setting ourselves up fro stupid mistakes and defeating our own modern era accomplishments and dooming ourselves to repeat the unfortunate mistakes of the past. It is rather interesting to simply sit back and watch it all unfold and think back to history and wonder why mankind continues to make these mistakes over and over again. We know for instance within this context that the sea walls in New Orleans and other places are not enough and that we have allowed short term gain for long term future tragedy. We see as the walls of Glaveston of 17 feet meet seas of nearly that size and watch spill over flood water reach the pinnicle, yet we knew this all along and denied the obvious and predictable and we now know through such new innovations of computer modeling that it is all preventable. Without making the world too sterile we know the limits of risk and therefore can make decisions based on fact not fiction or local (special) interests, for instance FEMA is paid for out of the funds of us all for those disasters which were determined acts of mother nature as if one god is our choice however we admit to another unforseeable and unpredictable god or entity such as ,mother nature and Murphy. Well what ever you believe is not of as much consequence as the facts we know all too well by computer modeling. It is such computer modeling when put into the brains of robots, which will surpass human intelligence, it is inevitable. Now then are we going to accept the reality of a non-human brains (computers) making decisions for us? If so will our brains shrink over time from lack of use? We know the modern dog, now domesticated is not have as smart as it's wild cousins such as the fox, wolf, coyote, etc. Let us ask a quick experimental question of readers of this thought board? If you were thrust back in time with all your current knowledge and asked to make a microwave oven. Would you even understand how? If you were thrust back into time with such people as Benjamin Franklin or Thoms Edison or the Wright Brothers, could you even assist them with your knowledge and help them get to thier experimentation quicker? the answer unfortunately for the most part is "NO", no, you could not. Some of us could, most could not. The only difference between this issue and the flooding issue is that we all know that water flows by gravity down hill and the Roans and greeks and other farmers throughout the world used this knowledge to deliver water by canal or aqueduct to the desired locations for use by civilization. Yet we know those things and even with that obvious knowledge do some of the darndest things, such as build housing tracts below sea level or water levels of nearby rivers. Of course the 100 year flood or the mighty Mississippi never let's us down and always shows us how stupid we are to deny what is known. Now we have fllod data, GIS, Satellite data, farmer's almanacs, living and working histories, fossils, land formations telling us of the past, yet we deny the tree trunk growth sperts and rings and proof of the past and go and make the gamble against the best advice of known knowledge. WHY? Obviously man like to gamble and sometimes wins, but when we bet against adds unneccessarily with our childrens future we are betting against the future and what we call patterns of mother nature of known data. We are a funny species aren't we? There will be flooding with Hurricane/Tropical Storm Claudette and we know with each 1/2 of an inch where it will occur. We cna predict nearly all of it. We also know where the pollution is and where it will end up. All known data. And we are fortunate last year that the storm in New Orleans was mild and did not cause a sea wall rupture and that Claudette missed it's mark as a full blown high catagory Hurricane, but in the future we must be prepared. You see that old axiom; "Luck is when preparedness meets opportunity" is true. We have a chance and a warning this time to put ourselves in a better place yet we have not. Will we? Or will we simply say wow, we sure lucked out and that the gamble to build in the Hurricane zone paid off this time. There are techniques and theories available to knock out the sides of Hurricanes now, namely polymer absorbing balls that absorb 2000 times there weight in water and when dropped into the ocean dissolve without harming the ocean. Shouldn't we be loading up a C-5 with this stuff and drop it on the wall of the Hurricane and collapsing it's power. Why aren't we studying these things and trying them now. This would have been a perfect test. But since we did not and this is suppose to be a high impact Hurricane year what will the next 3-6 land fall Hurricanes be like this year? Just some thoughts on decisions, the future of technology and weather.

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