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From: Lance (Demographic Research Second Tier City Opportunities)
Date: 17 Jul 2003
Time: 22:07:09
Remote Name: 66.82.48.1
Car Washing, Auto Detailing, Mobile Services, Truck Washing and general economic conditions in Ohio for large populated areas other than Cincinnati, Cleveland and Columbus. In Ohio: besides the 3-Cs you should look at Akron, Dayton, Canton, Toledo, Youngstown and their suburbs. We have been serious studying these areas quite intensely for quite a while, here is what we found. Dayton OH, is looking up after the recent GM Plant received high ratings for productivity being able to beat the Domestic Averages for time to build cars and SUVs, it’s SUV Plant was amongst the top performers in the Country for time to build at an average of 20.7 Hours, much better than the Ford Plants all expect F-150 and Taurus Models. Many new projects are happening in Dayton; http://www.gemcompanies.com/projectlistings.htm and even a visit from the President to kick off their huge Celebration of Inventing Flight with a huge air show featuring aerobatic teams and Blue Angles, Thunderbirds and Snow Birds from Canada. The second most attended aviation event in the United States. The one cent sales tax hike has put money back on the States Budget but all taxes hurt jobs and sales in such a progressive state. There are some harsh words being said; http://www.beaconhill.org/Editorials/ohio_oped217.html But nothing like the recall campaign of Grayer than Gray Davis in CA or the attacks coming from citizen groups in Nevada against the State Legislature there. People are upset everywhere and Taxes and Fees abound. Dayton, has pluses and minuses, it does have a new huge Civic Arts and Festival Center downtown, but things have not completely rebounded and there is urban flight to some of the more prosperous areas. Cincinnati has people moving in and it is in a good spot with too much traffic causing people to leave Columbus and job losses around the Indiana area after large lay offs at companies such as Delphi which effects the regions surrounding those plants for as far as 60-80 miles in all directions. The nature of manufacturing, robotics, NAFTA, China Labor issues and strong Unions affecting productivity up and above the reality thresh hold have been foretold previously by names like Deming, Perot, Iacocca, Ford Jr., Fredrick Winslow Taylor and all the folks who study Finite Capacity Scheduling. Who loses in these issues? American’s with high paying jobs who participate in the retail sectors. Without these jobs many areas are rethinking things as 34% of the jobs are currently in the service sectors in Dayton. Akron much higher and weathering it’s transition with about 64% private sector jobs coming from services. With the new Cobalt being built in Warren we see a staving off of total catastrophy in Youngstown and it helps the suburbs of Akron and the Kent University areas too. Although we do not completely agree with this article; http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/stories/2003/03/24/editorial2.html we do agree of the potencial involved there. There can be no doubt. Competition for sales tax, realestate, middle income housing and quality of life is a power struggle, urban flight has been growing in Cincinnati and we do not see that stopping. The National news about the city has not been good either as they blew out of proportion urban area clashes of racism and ethnic diversity issues. And of course the blowing up of their stadium too. On the South side of Dayton the suburbs are growing middle class and the area is without widespread crime. Downtown at night in Dayton, we cannot say the same thing as we see some drug deals going down in broad moonlight. In this letter we see all the problems discussed so far in our summation have been taken under consideration; http://www.state.oh.us/obm/media/articles/covrhorn.PDF . The issues with education are of important nature also, especially where public schools are coming under fire from poorer neighborhoods and black-Americans who see less of the opportunity for your kids, although many admit that the school system is infact much better than most. They are all into keeping it that way and bettering it. http://www.politixgroup.com/comm122.htm . Layoffs last year were taking a big hit on the Dayton Economy, but typically we have seen this in all the second tier sized metro areas of Ohio, taking mainly of Toledo, Canton, Akron and Dayton. Akron Economic Researcher at the Downtown 17th floor chamber building in Akron tells of Firestone, Rubbermaid and other Corporate HQ leaving the city. Akron of course has suburbas benefiting greatly from the Cleveland Metro area much like Dayton has from Columbus OH. The three C’s- Cincinnati, Cleveland and Columbus are all huge markets and well spread out equally as well as in good proximity to other large cities such as Pittsburgh, Detroit, Indiannapolis and Lousiville, KY to draw from and trade with. However much of those cities rely on manufacturing, mining and automobiles, rural areas are concentrated farming and mostly Corporate makes up the largest bread winning share of things, with good rail and transportation accessibility. Even with Ohio’s outrageous attack on the trucking industry. That has to be politics. One State patrol officer told us that they are suppose to pull over 80% commercial and 20% private vehicles. This means on Friday nights when you have drunk drivers if you pull over 2 cars then you have to pull over 8 trucks, well at 2 am, that just might be half of all trucks. Then of course having to justify yourself you look around for a way to write a ticket? Such a quota is unnecessary and have diminishing returns on enforcement and turns into aggressive and unnecessary selective prosecution which hurts all interstate trucking, gives the state a bad name (even with all the enterprise, trade and FTZ zones set aside for industry and distribution). They invited it all in and then slammed them with arbitrary enforcement, complex rules and increased fees and taxes many times in the form of fines and tickets. All this, well it destroys the distribution system and creates a larger and more NAZI like DOT. The animosity of truck drivers to government in OH is paralleling CA and D.C. Typical government screwing with what is working and attacking those which produce the most for society in the name of growth in agency size to protect us. Such hog wash. Everyone knows when you slow the progress of the language, money flow, education, communication, transportation or distribution you are simply taxing all of society and eliminating the powers of free-trade and capitalism, clearly that serves no man. Back to the subject at hand. Also out in full force is our wonderful OSHA Agency due to strong union complaint system experiences. http://www.oshrc.gov/decisions/html_1998of all workers in the State of /97-1230.html Do not get on the Union’s bad list everyone has a friend who works Union and knows how to make a big deal out of nothing, in order to be vindictive, get out of work or a honest days pay. The lawyers love these cases, because they win even if no one else wins. The courts are stacked with them. One thing which has come out of this is that OH is amongst one of the strongest states where even small businesses offer Health Care Coverage and due to the economies of scale the price has come down for all. The average is 67% of all small businesses offer health care now. Mr. Jay Delane, Research Specialist over at the Convention Center in Dayton, said that labor was decent and that with all the colleges and universities in the area about 70,000 students were looking for part-time work and willing to work for fair wages. In Warren, Michelle Phillips of the Youngstown Regional Chamber agreed that many kids after finishing college left for other areas to work instead of staying in Youngstown, but did wish to work while going to school. We found this to be the case at the Mocha House in town a local hang-out around the corner from downtown and Delphi and GM plant. In Akron we met with Marcel van den Bosch, Research Coordinator in downtown. While working in conjunction with the Chamber of Commerce in the Greater Akron area he said that things were much better than anticipated. Goodyear being the biggest anchor corporation in the Akron area, with an incredible history, which we will discuss later. The lay-offs in Akron came last year and most of the buildings downtown are only 8% unoccupied which is better than any of the larger cities such as Seattle, Denver, LA, SF, Miami, Dallas, Houston, NYC or Boston. Industrial space did not fair so well will many 100’s of thousands of square feet unleased or accounted for. But all in all the area is doing okay, and the suburbs especially near Fairlawn were rally growing well. One issue in Akron which came up in a conversation with Jay Schmahl the National Sales Director for InfoCision Management Corp, http://www.infocision.com the largest telemarketing company in OH, and WV was the problems in the telemarketing industry which is about 270 billion in annual revenues and employs some 50,000 Americans in the country. The good news about such industries is they bring in good telecommunication infrastructures, lower costs for consumers telephone bills, and are pollution free. In WV each time a call center is opened the governor shows up there to the grand openings since Coal Mining is a dying industry at least mining for it underground is for sure. Above ground coal mines such as in Gillette, WY have a ten-fold advantage. The areas in WV were call centers are have brought economic prosperity to down ridden areas which have suffered so many industry job losses. Luckily for his company so far the FTC telemarketing lists for Do Not Call, have discouraged the less professional companies and will probably help their company. But here again is a issue of not understanding what you are doing when you make a law. A professional telemarketing company does not call at dinner time. The unprofessional ones are now going to be gone, but further legislation starts in August and that might effect their company and several other clean industry call centers in many parts of semi-rural America where manufacturing jobs have gone by the waste-side. When looking at Akron carefully one cannot notice it’s brilliant location to rivers, water, large cities and middle class consumer spending populations. With Canton to the South, high-end and growing Fairlawn North, Kent State and University of Ohio both a stones throw and 160 trucking companies many of which are located in the area, great for http://www.truckwashguy.com . The Akron Chamber of Commerce was quite active with over 1900 members. Which ahs helped fuel small business growth, although of the 1950 businesses which started in 1998-2001, that same period posted some 1600 small business failures, such a drop off rate is staggering and scary. Some were due to Wal-Marts and Box store growth on the South and North side of town causing regional shopping draw, some other problems being the worse than normal weather and the rain late into Spring. And of course the decade and a half paradigm shift in Manufacturing sector and the bust of the tech bubble and recent telecom layoffs which did hit Cleveland hard. Housing Growth was good, but urban flight hurt and when Rubbermaid moved to Atlanta to be by Home Depot their major customer, besides Wal-Mart, things were already upset after the Firestone problem and HQ moving of B.F. Goodrich. But also the TRW move and the BP America merger caused the total large corporate job loss to reach 5000 jobs. BP America jobs were caused to exit the area and many simply cut in a savings of repetition with new partners, Chicago and Houston both took hits in that one as we recall. Luckily of the 5000 job loses and that is just the high paying 60K plus jobs, since then 5700 jobs were created most in growing retail sector. Akron is also now looking at another fortune 500 company to leave the area, Office Max if they are bought by Boise Cascade the paper company. This makes since because timber is an issue with Canadian import taxes on timber and old growth cutting restrictions in the Northwestern US, while Boise has planted tree farms in WA, OR and ID, which you can see along highways in Olympia area and on I-84 in Oregon. The paper industry in the US is hurting and if you look at the changes, due to the growth in housing and price of wood and increased government need to purchase more paper to hassle businesses with paperwork and forms and taxes and fees and fines and rules and etc, etc. you can see that if it weren’t for Uncle Sams cluster muck there would be no need to buy the checkerboard clear cutting Canadian global warming hypocrites timber anyway. The US companies could offset the costs with supplying the housing industry buy excess from Canada and everyone would be all good, just by following a few Microsoft principles in cutting down the number of forms. And mind you I am not complaining just because of the Winslow Mills in Maine back in the 1700’s. Back to Akron subject. Ohio has 28 of the fortune 500 HQs there and some come and some go, but this is the first time they have a net loss of Corporate HQs. Some was due to the Tech Bubble where many companies dropped off. Yet the fortune 1000 listings they are about equal or better. But all in all many parts of Ohio have found a net loss in populations like much of the upper Midwest states. Their solution “raise sales tax?” hoping to make up the balance of expenditures and economies of scale by inviting more companies to leave. Many great things have been created in Ohio and in Akron if you tour the Rubber Barons Gardens, Goodyear World of Rubber Museum, Dayton Aviation and Air Force Museums you can surely agree. They are all leading edge in so many things from Aero Space to Medicine, such a tradition itself is alone enough to propel the state. We are bullish on OH as much as a few things we do not like as business people of which some are being addressed and every state is a compromise, that is not good or bad, it just is. Well actually it could be fixed but doubtful if it will afterall most of the great historical figures are gone now. In Dayton, the Pattersons and the Wrights left a legacy, which might be a tough one to live up to. In Akron, the Rubber Entreprenuers who assisted us in every aspect of modern life with innovations and trial and errors, which helped us get to the moon, space, win WWII, race cars, play sports, protect us in hospitals and of course mobility of the modern automobile. If they were today to drive around and see it all much would impress them, but much would certainly upset them and they would go out and fix it. Maybe OH and some of these other places might want to consult the writings and thoughts of these great men and get back to reality and fix the obvious to move their ball forward. In Akron and Medina area there are many very nice and updated car washes, the level of sophistication is representative of the auto industry influence there and the love for the car, being clearly an extension of people’s personality, right away you notice that people love their cars. More red cars there then ion most places, meaning people also identify you by your car and everyone knows this unspoken language of whop you are and what level you view yourself and how you want to be judged. All good for car washing. Pressure washing has some decent competition in OH for instance Akron, has many people doing pressure washing and I discussed this with one proud mother of a son who attends Kent State and does deck washing on the side and dies real well during that peak season of April to July. We do Deck Cleaning too http://www.deckwashguys.com . Sparkle Wash, Wash on Wheels are both represented in Akron, as well as many private companies like JC Pressure Washing who also detail cars and washes trucks, Pitz Power Washing specializing in Houses and brick and concrete. Of which we also do; http://www.homewashguy.com and http://www.concretewashguys.com . Akron also has many companies which serve larger niches such as property management services including pressure washing and several Sweeping Companies who have taken up pressure washing of sidewalks and concrete and even cleaning shopping centers. Akron, Cleveland, Columbus, Toledo, Cincinnati, Dayton, Canton all have billboards around town warning people of mold so many pressure washing companies have added that to their service line in OH and one flyers, brochures and even the more sophisticated CD ROM or website advertising now lists mold remediation. Also strong in that arena is Service Master competing with strong telemarketing sales which after Aug. they will most likely out source due to issues with FTC law. This is a large marketing strategy for all their brands, Merry Maids, True-green, Terminex and their web site http://www.weservehomes.com . And of course we have noticed and incredible amount of insider share dumping and trading lately on their form 4’s. The are strong competitors for commercial and residential services in those areas. As far as detailing is concerned the big brand name known in the area is Ziebart and many older closed gas stations and auto shops have taken up detailing and specialty come-ons such as Seal Coats etc. One company was selling in the little town of Warren for only $60.00 which if you know anything about the market is about half price thus indicating the sluggishness and un recoverability of rural OH at the current economic strategy. There are a few chains of coin-op car washes in the Akron area of value. Quality Scrub Car Wash has over 10 washes presently and say they are looking at four more location and one in the process. Wash Works car wash has six locations of which they are mixed styles, but all nice. Ryko Manufacturing has done well in the area but the Laser Wash seems to be the customers favorite and the later and more stylish car washes contain those newer systems. We counted about 20 washes on our recent visit and visited ten of those, but would not be surprised if there were over 40 total washes in the general area, Maybe more. Again going back to the OH attitude and relationship with the automobile. It is alive and well there, no doubt about it. In Youngstown we saw the city of Boardman growing middle class mixed race area with newer homes and the downtown and adjacent area appeared to be poor black, but not crime ridden, people there were very nice and hard working family folks. If you begin to study http://www.RegionalChamber.com and look at the projects around the Youngstown area it is easy to get excited about the future seeing as they are pro-active and smart about economic growth and about their place in the world between Pittsburgh and Akron. The coolest and most aggressive project was out at the airport where we witnessed the new 500 plus acre business park and mostly all manufacturing businesses-JOBS. And by the way Mr. Legislature, don’t tell me you are going to make more jobs by standing on the podium and making more laws. The only way to make more jobs is to control-alt-delete more laws. If you can’t do the three finger salute, you are no Boy Scout in my book you are nothing but a political crook. Good use of rhyme words ehy? In Youngstown, they are copying the Columbus laid-off execute theory that everyone needs services to trade their money back for the no time lifestyle, yet they have not figured out yet that everyone else in their neighborhood is broke too. They think that only they are laid off. And that people need concierge services. In Columbus and Cleveland and the Suburbs thereof we see many of these concierge services popping up and trying to make a go of it. It may have worked in the tech bubble but clients are not that easy to come by these days. That might work in Bethesda Maryland, New Port Beach CA, Naples FL, Park City UT, Ketchum ID, Kalspel MT, Redmond WA, Beverly Hills, etc. etc. But in downtown areas with Corporate office space at 20 % unoccupied space you are not going to achieve this. In Youngstown a new company has started to try this dying concept to serve the middle class in an area unaccustomed to such wonderful service, we checked out American Concierge and Errand Service which was starting out in the middle class growing area of Boardman south of Youngstown offering Corporate event planning, document delivery, onsite lunch, dry cleaning pick-up and deliver and no car or auto services yet, we thought that we are the most requested service of corporate American employees, even in an area with 50 car washes in their local phone book for the three country area. Also we noticed new companies moving in like the recently gone public uniform service. Cintas who was able to take advantage of the federal Trade Zone number 188 and build a 24,000 square foot building in a proactive recruitment by the regional chamber of commerce and River View Investment Corporation and Economic Development Association. This will provide 28 employees and lots of vehicles for us to wash no doubt. When this type of growth is added to the area along with Delphi in Warren and GM Plant in nearby Lordstown both with 7000 employees each still after both having been previously downsized. GM re-expanding with the Cobalt Car Project and Delphi which had laid off 3000 which you probably read in the WSJ. In tight times things like the FTZ and aggressive recruitment even if only little wins of 25 new jobs help uplift cities especially after a tough winter and uncertain goal attainment of 15 million cars to be sold in 2003. After coming off a 16.8 million and 17.1 million cars sold years prior, which saved the areas butt and American consumer spending numbers to boot. But when companies like Delphi lays off the 3000 you also lose another 3000 in smaller companies which manufacture. Luckily there is a port straight up the HWY 11 in OH from Youngstown at Ashtabula, with a HWY and Rail right to it. So when things come back they do so first where there is proper supporting infrastructure. In the last decade the manufacturing of the Greater Youngstown MSA, was about 6000 job losses in manufacturing, 3000 in wholesale parts. But services? Yes, ah ha, services I tell you, 13,000 jobs created there, thank you very much, love to see those numbers since we are in the service business of course http://www.washguy.com . In 2000 there were 12,800 manufacturing companies between Erie-Cleveland-Canton-Pittsburgh and 13,900 Wholesale companies. Just in time theory did not work as well as intended as wholesale companies were traded for computerized in-flight, over the road, just in time, on the way transportation and distribution alignment. But as OH started attacking trucking and places like Akron went from 42 flights a day to 30, the just in time caught wholesalers out of inventory and out of luck along with manufacturers out of parts and finite capacity theory out the window. But it is just as well as all the partnerships with Japanese firms had changed the game anyway and parts were to be genuine Japanese built based on stolen technology from all those picture taking trade tours. Dah? Universally built cars, avoided luxury tax laws, 51% built in a NAFTA country did not help the UAW at all, but then again they also did not help themselves either. Eastern and Western culture clash insued and all the Collision Course warnings by the heads of all the Unions, and Divisions of GM, couldn’t put Humpty Back together again since now the game got changed once more. And without upgrades, R and D and retooling to meet and exceed customers desires for new and exciting automobiles they attempted to convince the American consumer that they wanted to drive their grandfathers car, telling them, But this is the new version it is different? Really what is different? Well now on the rebound with competition from Germans, Japanese and Koreans it really is different, but the foothold is here and these partnerships are hard to tell who is running the companies, but one thing is for sure, that is the money is not staying here is it? It’s all about flow, whether you are winning a contest for building a cars or SUVs in 20.7 hours in Dayton GM Plant (one of Five) by multiplying the number of cars and dividing by the total number of hours the plant operated under the finite capacity scheduling model or if you are watching the monetary system which is now world wide repeat itself like the closed loop system of ocean-evaporation-clouds-rain, erosion-river flow-back to the ocean again. Anyway back to the subject of manufacturing in the US and in this case rural OH, where they are between big cities and big industries and shippable locations. In Youngstown the new construction is 10:1 in square feet of new homes to commercial properties, which makes home values good FOR NOW, and increases certain areas on the side of town where the middle class congregates, but also it hurts the urban flight and crime problems plaguing nearly all of America as Suburbs grow like lawns and ride on garden tractors. In Youngstown they have 27 Industrial and office parks, 1 FTZ, 17 of which have rail service by CSX, and what is OHIO’s solution after raising the sales tax 1% which will cost the state an estimated 900 million in capital inflow? And God, yes God only knows how many jobs? Their solution no sh_t, to allow slot machines in Horse and Car Race Tracks and of course tax them? Outrageous? That is the solution? Added so far is 1% sales tax and some areas after the county’s special sales tax assessment is now up to 7.5% and an additional $ .02 on every gallon of gasoline? In a state that derives most of it’s revenue from taxes paid by the largest employers, car makers and parts for cars made in a state where 88% of every car made is a car Jesus, I am told would not drive? Yes, SUVs are made in OH folks. Youngstown also has a Superfund site in the old Youngstown Sheet and Tube Company closed in 1977, yet with all these closings, declining populations in Youngstown itself the economic development group managed to create almost 10,000 jobs, I am impressed. Too bad MCI-WorldCom the big plum dropped from the tree as their main call in center laid off many people, but at one time had been the third largest employer there. Lordstown also had the Lordstown Space Center, which besides GM was a big deal at one time. Our Competition Blue Beacon has a truck wash there, which did a nice job. One situation in Youngstown is the weather average temps are meek in winter; Nov and March not to bad with an average of about 45 degrees, but in Dec. 36 degrees, Jan 31.4, Feb 33.8 degrees, yes doable, but those are averages of which this year was not average, about half way between the wicked record setting lows and average. Population are definitely our types of customers with 31% being 25-44 years old, X’ers and Boomers and you can tell this is pretty constant around OH areas. 21% are 44-66 years old our second best clientele especially good for the Detail Guys http://www.detailguys.com . There are 35 trucking companies left standing now in the area and 17 trucking terminals, 1 major rail yard, but the area is serviced by 98 General Motor Companies, many are merging and some exiting due to stiff competition in the industry with JB Hunt, Covenant, Swift and Fed Ex Ground, examples of this are the recent Yellow and Roadway Merger, and Consolidated freight calling it quits in Portland, Ore. There are 29 companies contracting in the area through jobbers and freight forwarders, but many are out of Pittsburgh or out of the Richfield-Akron area where 160 trucking companies are based or have terminals. Heavy Hauling is not a problem as many in the phone book, we counted 47 exist, but many are independents and OH is cracking down on them so hard they cannot make money with fuel used within state and numbers of miles driven in state all requiring extra fees, driving up costs for everything that is bigger than 40 foot trailer. The trailers also have fees but Heavy Hauling has additional fees, even as bad as the fees in CA, NJ, OR or WA state. God bless America, Keep on Trucking? Youngstown benefits being 45 miles from Akron and Canton, 15 miles from PA’s Sharon and New Castle Chicken disease city and 60 miles even from Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Although we expect to see a slower than projected in crease in population the economic guestimaters think the area tri-county could reach 626,000 within 10 years, we think less since the rural areas are dying now and the inner city is having mass exodus, You should not count the downtown areas anyway they are too poor to be buying if you are selling things which are legal. Not to say poor people are bad, but bad poor people congregate in these types of areas as last resorts. South of town are two cities for those who have had enough of man’s so-called progress, these cities are Salem and Sebring OH. Sufficient small towns with a little flair and drawing from the city areas. Many are moving there who cannot afford the suburbs or do not wish to participate in mass exploitation of tract homes no matter how many walkways and parks you put around them. When people talk about the mid-sized city areas of OH we like to compare them for instance where is the Growth in Toledo, Dayton, Youngstown, Canton or Dayton. We see many opportunities and many miss-stated facts about the cities. We also see that the people there are very much engrained in the local newspapers views of things, yet fail to see the diamond in the rough or even understand what makes the city view themselves different and opportunistic, and the catering politicians rather than explain it to the people or debate the truth, simply go with the flow and work based on public perception, which primarily is the mindset of the editors and reporters stirring up controversy to sell as news and simply transforms the view of the reader or picture scanner and headline grabber. That is sad after we talked with so many people and passers by and so many who were very good in their field or really seemed sharp as to understand the dynamics of their town. But basically could not give good directions to any place, give a good and rational summation of the characters of city leaders who we personally talked to or even tell you how their very job was related to world events. Scary. But rather than trying to educate those who believe what the are told, we have to know for sure. Our team has given a thumbs down to Youngstown except for truck washing and in conjunction with Pittsburgh or an Akron franchisee, thumbs down to Dayton except for truck washing serviced from somewhere else, Thumbs down to Warren, Thumbs up to Fairlawn and North Akron, Thumbs up to Akron and Richfield for Truck Washing , Thumbs up to South suburbs of Middletown, Miamisburg, Centerville for Car Wash Guys and Detail Guys along with Thumbs up to Canton. For other businesses we salute you. We see the draw for Winter snow birds to use a franchise only half year in areas of Sharon, New Castle, Youngstown, Boardman, warren combo. We are up for it for someone who understands that market. This article is without malice or pre-conceived notions; it simply is what it is. Not good or bad, impartial in everyway based on our experience in the Industry. As far as Cleveland, Columbus, or the tri-state areas of Cincinnati, all we can say is YES, it’s all good and no problems. We have it mapped out and ready to rock, with prototype in mind. Hope you enjoyed this mini-economic report on OH’s second tier cities with much potential as the markets hit the reality check point and turn skywards after all Ohio is the starting point of all man made flight.
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