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From: Lance (Automobile Market Observations)
Date: 18 Jul 2003
Time: 23:45:46
Remote Name: 66.82.48.1
Working in a market such as Dayton, OH requires business savvy and complete understanding of demographics. For instants the difference between Ohio on the whole and the Greater Dayton Area MSA, which includes such county areas as: Butler, Clark, Darke, Greene, Miami, Montgomery, Preble and Warren. The demographics of Montgomery and Miami which is where we plan to establish a Detail Guys Franchise are very suited to our needs. The population backdrop is somewhat similar to the entire state of OH. Ethnically speaking it is mostly white with Asian populations and Black Americans at about 10% to 11%. In Montgomery County it is 19% Black American and only 10% in Clark County, but the middle class Black Americans are moving in and fixing the diversity issues. There are quite a few people who commute to work in Marysville at the Honda Plant and Proving Grounds. Also a huge distribution center there with many large carriers located and Rail Service by CSX and also huge numbers of Auto Haulers. About 13,000 at Honda work there. One of the reasons that the Japanese wanted to have competing rail service with their plant in San Antonio as part of the negotiations. So they could squeeze the price point out of the rail companies similar to Rockefeller’s exploits. One thing that is unbelievably nice about the area is the many colleges and Universities in the area, 29 in all the biggest being University of Dayton with 10,000 enrolled, Wright University with 14,000 and Sinclair Community College with 22,000. This makes for a very good young and energetic group of people. The clientele is equally as inviting with 202,000 inhabitants between the ages of 25-34 not including the part-time college students. 35-44 representing nearly 250K pop and 45-54 at 215K. The population South of Town is expanding and we see Scarsborogh to Centerville with great markets and everything in between is golden. The USAF also has Wright Patterson AFB with excellent inflow to the economy even though much of that is deployed presently, still it impacts the city in an extremely positive way. About 25,000 people work there and that is after the lay offs and discharges previously. They expect with BRAC that they will be on the receiving end of additional attachments and squadrons serving in Dayton as well as R and D since the colleges offer that level of researching. Also with the huge museum of flight and being the history of the inventing flight makes it good also for tourism and positive PR for the Military. Other large employers included Delphi but they have had significant labor lay offs and GM is a biggy there. In health Care about 9000 workers. Airborne Express and Emery Air freight http://dayton.bizjournals.com/dayton/stories/2003/04/21/daily10.html also claim fame to the area. 7500 people work there and you may recall the merger with DHL? http://dayton.bizjournals.com/dayton/stories/2003/07/14/daily1.html . The good weather of the region http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/hq/ersd/iln.htm provides Airborne a much better chance at this hub facility than in other parts of Michigan, IN, IL, NY, KY. The Seattle based company has brought many jobs to the region. Also Airborne is a good type of customer for truck wash guys http://www.truckwashguys.com . Emery has laid off people but at one time employed over 3000 in the area. Emery has really worked hard to work with the Manufacturing industry and helped OH http://www.emeryworld.com/eww/emeryweb/company_news/media/hubops.asp The just in time world of manufacturing has to take into account rush situations for total capacity scheduling, leading that charge was it’s bay area parent company and they manufacturing sector did rely on Emery for that; http://www.manufacturing.net/mmh/index.asp?layout=article&articleid=CA122454 Also of significant value is it’s ability to deploy new wave technologies at it’s hub and custom clearing houses http://www.metrologic.com/corporate/press_rel/general/mprhot1098.htm Much of this technology was in response to FedEx’s market advances and UPS shear size making it difficult to compete. The University of Dayton employs 4500 folks all fairly high wage earners like their blue collar UAW counter parts at the GM SUV and Delphi centers. Here is some recent news as of todays watch: Dayton Recent News contains some Blues; For instance we all know the state of the Union when it relates to the steel industries; http://www.bizjournals.com/dayton/stories/2003/07/14/daily44.html?f=et60 . Nearby in Springfield this news in today also; http://www.bizjournals.com/dayton/stories/2003/07/14/daily46.html?f=et60 In this we see AK Steel http://www.bizjournals.com/dayton/stories/2001/01/01/newscolumn1.html . At one time employing 4200 people. But Dayton is not primarily a steel town, it is a manufacturing town and the birth place of aviation. Today the market sectors which are up in the greater Dayton area include: Construction in residential, Retail is up, Real estate, Healthcare and services is big. Commercial construction is being primarily boosted with school projects recently. Square foot costs on the robust side of town southside is anywhere from $2.30 to $12.00 per square foot. Retail space is $2.30 to 3.00; Office is $7-12.00; Industrial runs the the entire spectrum. Office Parks include; Franklin, Heritage and South Tech Center all good for Detail Guys http://www.detailguys.com and Industrial Parks are also plentiful with Emery Logistics Park 265 acres in all. Lebanon Commerce Center for 200 acres, Moraine Industrial Center and Park center Industrial. All good for heavy industry cleaning http://www.tractorwashguys.com . Although Manufacturing has declined drastically over the last decade the Industrial Parks have life. Downtown Office buildings include Kettering, Mead, First national, Reibold, 5/3 Bank http://www.bizjournals.com/dayton/stories/2003/07/14/daily22.html?f=et60 and the Key Bank Buildings. Over 3 million square feet with a convention center right in the middle. There is significant space underutilized and unoccupied. Close by Cincinnati has done what academics think is unthinkable; http://www.planning.org/newsreleases/2002/manley.htm But Austin TX also had a recent issue and fired it’s area economic development recruitment group too. But Austin needs help since the Tech Sector has been slashed causing housing situations; Austin TX surrounding area foreclosures up, http://www.bizjournals.com/austin/stories/2003/07/14/daily41.html?f=et51 We are seeing this in many areas were high-end $60-80K per year jobs have been lost. Although this maybe an unfair comparison you can use this lesson when you discuss new technological recruitment to derive jobs in cities of similar size. IN Dayton there are issues with vacant properties looking run down and hurting the prospecting and retainment of leasors in other buildings which is said to lead to the decay and they have proposed a fee to take care of this; http://www.daytondailynews.com/localnews/content/epaper/editions/thursday/dayton_f3203485d6282268005c.html Some apartments also in the area are a drag on their owners and the area; http://www.daytondailynews.com/business/content/business/daily/0624biltmore.html . All bad signs of urban flight and need of revitalization to bring people back to town from the out of town suburban box stores. It can be done. Look at Brick City in OKC, River Walks in Columbus GA, and San Antonio TX http://www.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/stories/1998/07/13/story5.html . Alexandria Boardwalk area and Torpedo Factory shops. Some of the surrounding suburbs scare us more: http://www.wmrb.org/Reports/99-1downtown.pdf many of these areas need an uplifting too. In the other suburbs which are newer they have grown the new style way with retail box stores and shopping centers. And with that office parks such as Wright Executive and Newmarks 5 office complex tech style parks in the area, which have done well and are about 88% occupied now. Unemployment is 6.1% and I see a another couple of ticks on that before things are through since the manufacturing sector is 18% while we know the US nationwide average is at 13%. About 148,000 are employed in services in the Greater Area which we had to double check as that seemed high, but it is correct and Dayton has made a good transition and better than most cities its size over the past decade. Service sector could grow some more there as things return to a normal economy. A considerable amount of new jobs for the area are posted at http://www.nationjob.com and even with the adverse tax structure to businesses in OH things are doing better than their neighboring states. http://wwwstate.oh.us/tax Some of the stats we are reviewing area also coming from the internet sites of http://www.bea.gov and http://www.bls.gov and http://www.LMI.state.oh.us and http://www.daytonchamber.com One of the unfortunate situations has been truck manufacturing and in town were International Truck Manufacturing which has seen steady declines and lay offs. Also DuraMax laid off there. This effects Delphi too; http://www.bizjournals.com/dayton/stories/2001/01/01/ . Now realize OH is hostile to the trucking industry yet trucks, truck engines and truck parts are built there. A recent study showed that when cars and trucks have accidents 74% of the time it is the cars fault, 11% of the time the truck might have prevented it but it was the cars fault and 15% the truck made a bad judgment call, yet the OH highway Patrol pulls over 80% commercial and 20% personal cars? I guess it is about revenue not safety. And you know who makes the stats? The DOT and the same group which is trying raise fines on truck tickets because they are larger fines. OH deserves the job losses for their actions, but really who does this hurt? Regular hard working good Americans. Outrageous the tenacity and hypocrisy of the DOT. Give me a reason to believe they are here to help the people they serve? I would like to hear it from someone claiming to be in charge. Email me if you wish to comment; Lance@carwashguys.com . I am open I really would like to here this excuse. So much for debate class, this one is a gimme. That is even an easier argument then taking Saddam out of power. Truck sales are up this month for the first time about 1500 more trucks then last month, that is a good sign even if some of the reason is upgrades to comply with EPA harassment. Other lay offs include McCauley Propeller Factory, BWXT, Wright AFB, about 5000 in all. But high paying that is the kicker. Lots of interesting thoughts on the subject; http://www.ncicfund.org/newsletter/sp96/fsp96.html . Dayton also has some newer cleaner type industries such as Victoria Secret Catalog Processing center and call in http://www.bizjournals.com/dayton/stories/2003/07/07/daily41.html?f=et60 ------- And the famous Lexis-Nexis for ATTORNEYS is located in Dayton and it has grown, boy has it grown. Lawyers are a growth industry, not because they have to use Viagra to get it up, but because there are three times as many young students in law school as there already are in practice. Obviously if we are to fix the economy we need manufacturing sector to make more bullets. They all ought to be killed, you know that don’t you? We should make a law against lawyers, but they would sue you for practicing law without a license? HA HA HA. That is what is wrong with the economy, everything else is fine. Hey don’t take my word for it, ask Caesar. Hell they will probably try to sue me for a hate crime? Whatever? If you have any attorney jokes email them to me Lance@carwarshguys.com and do not worry if you think they are not good enough, they are all good to me. Back to the subject. Oh forgot this concludes Dayton Part II Economic Study.
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