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From: Lance (Auto Industry Research)
Date: 25 Apr 2003
Time: 23:20:14
In 2000 there were 17.1 million cars sold in the US, 2002 16.8 were sold and in 2003 we were predicted to have 16.2 million cars sold. Will we get there? Hard to say, but here is what is happening. Sales were not robust as expected in Jan-Feb for all of the Big Three. Now projections have been lowered by 5-10% by Chysler whose Mercedes Brand has lost only 1% to BMW who everyone expected to walk away with increased sales and stay ahead of the pack all year. Ford and GM are scrambling. GM playing it up by giving incentives for flooring costs to dealers who increase number of loaner and demo units asking them to allow car buyers to do take home over night test drives. Does it work? Yes, as a matter of fact it does and statistics show it can increase sales. 0/0 and rebates are heavy at both Ford, GM and Daimler chrysler. But it appears the sales are off enough that the 16.2 million cars sold in the US may have been a little too optimistic. Now looking at numbers to be 14.6 million cars, which is a slight disappointment. Meanwhile CA today threw out it's pie in the sky electric vehicles quota requirements after the lawsuit stopped it's progress. Now they are looking for lower numbers over 5 years for hybrid electric/gas and hydrogen cell. The fact is that we are not off to a great start this year if we are expecting the auto industry to save the day again like it did with retail sales figures in 2002. And now the EURO is higher than the dollar so companies like Volkswagon, Puegot and Renault are all in a world of hurt trying to compete on US soil. Too bad for Volkswagon because they are easy to wash, the other two, they would have been boycotted anyway. Why is this an issue at all? Well because Auto Services of car washing and/or routine preventative maintenance track auto sales for about three to five years out, so if these number decrease under 12 million, we could see a decline in services by as early as 2005-2006.
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